Imagining Plausible Futures of Vocational Education in India
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The following scenarios were developed as part of my Major Research Project, which partially fulfilled the requirements for the Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation degree at OCAD University, Toronto, Canada.
The project “Future of Vocational Education in India: Nurturing Entrepreneurial Talents and Bridging Employability Gaps” aims to understand the Vocational education and skill development components of the Indian higher education landscape, pivotal in training the nation’s labour force. Despite its significance, the sector has suffered from chronic underinvestment, inadequate oversight, and a deficit in high-quality training, resulting in sustained reputation damage among the youth. Nevertheless, vocational programs remain crucial for enhancing employability and fostering an entrepreneurial mindset.
This project aims to investigate and delineate the systemic issues plaguing the Indian vocational education system while also identifying the concerns and needs of key stakeholders, including students, graduates, and faculty members. Utilising foresight research methodologies and systems thinking frameworks, this research constructs plausible alternative and normative futures to formulate comprehensive, multi-faceted policy recommendations.
These recommendations are designed to reimagine vocational education in a manner that nurtures entrepreneurial capacities and reduces unemployability among Indian youth.
Please read my project on the OCAD Open Research Repository to understand and learn about the project. The link is given below:
Please read these scenarios with an open mind and engage with the visions of the future as plausible possibilities rather than absolute certainties. Each scenario may have some overlap with reality. It would be best to consider how these commonalities affect our present and future.
I hope you have a fun reading experience!
Introduction
Discussions about the topic are no longer limited to policy experts, academics, and politicians. They permeate the media, conferences, summits, and even dinner table conversations.
India, with over 50% of its population below the age of 30, stands as one of the youngest nations in the world. The median age of 28, compared to 38 in the United States and 39 in China, paints a picture of a vibrant and youthful India. As we look ahead to 2050, with a young population for the foreseeable future, there is tremendous potential to develop further and empower this human capital, ensuring the global competitiveness of the Indian labour force.
Regarding the nation’s economic progress, India is still lagging due to various problems, such as poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and poor medical infrastructure. With pressure mounting due to rising demand for improving skill development and entrepreneurship standards and rapid growth in urban migration, the youth are currently protesting and demanding stable employment opportunities. On the other hand, we are seeing the material impact of changing education and entrepreneurship policies, such as the National Education Policy of 2020, and the private sector is more willing to cooperate and support India’s development.
However, it is essential to recognise the uncertainties associated with developing public policies that impact millions of people’s education and skill development. While many agree that vocational education and skill training will continue to play an important role, the idea about how the future will come to fruition is vague at best.
This article will present four plausible scenarios for India’s future by the year 2049. The future is ever-changing and not set in stone. Our collective actions today can have a diverse impact on our futures. A future-prepared organisation and society accept the uncertainties and work with them. They analyse the signals of change and make informed decisions to reconsider existing strategies and redefine the future for the better.
We will immerse ourselves in the world of 2049 to understand the environment surrounding vocational education and skill development. Together, we can identify the changing role of stakeholders, potential threats, and opportunities for collective action.
Scenario 01: Cracks in the Foundation
In the early 2020s, focusing on vocational education and driving high GDP growth for economic development has led to positive shifts in government attitudes towards vocational education and skill development. Sustained efforts by the state resulted in achieving complete skilling by 2049.
Enforcement of industrial training regulations and partnerships creates abundant apprenticeship opportunities. Major metropolitan areas are becoming hubs of education, training, and employment. State investment in public universities, healthcare and affordable housing has incentivised young Indians to migrate from the rural countryside to urban economic centres.
Government policies have astutely recognised labour migration as a critical driver of economic development. To facilitate easier labour migration to developed economies, vocational education and training programs in Indian higher education were revamped to align with international labour standards, underscoring the positive impact of such migration on the country’s economic landscape.
However, Sustained migration to existing economic centres in the country has led to exponential population growth, uneven development patterns, and depression in rural and sub-urban regions due to a lack of economic activities. By 2049, migration to developed economies has led to a skilled labour shortage in new specialised industrial sectors. For a quarter of a century, state policies focused on and directed the development of existing industries, leading to a lower emphasis on entrepreneurship and a lack of skill diversification. In 2049, challenges associated with social mobility hinder the wealth-generation capabilities of a nation facing skilled labour shortages and economic stagnation.
Scenario 02: All Hands on the Deck
The rising cost of living and decreasing social mobility have raised concerns about India’s future economic growth. Consistent societal pressures for better living standards have compelled the Government of India to transform the country’s vocational education and employment systems.
The new education policy of the early 2020s had seamlessly integrated vocational programs into the general education system. But work did not stop there. The state reduced the risk associated with entrepreneurship with financial support and a friendly business environment. Multi-disciplinary programs were made accessible to promote skill diversity and adapt to global economic disruptions.
Moreover, continuous exposure to vocational programs has reduced the social stigma surrounding skill development. Labour standards were improved to align with international standards. The government remained receptive to external feedback and achieved its target of completing the skilling of Indian workers.
Therefore, in 2049, Indians can access high-value and productive job opportunities. The employment rate remains high in most cities due to the rise of service and service-integrated manufacturing jobs. State policies have incentivised experimental innovation and the expansion of industries and businesses to small cities and towns.
Small and suburban cities become new economic centres due to access to skilled labour and lower capital investment. Better support for MSMEs and sustainable development of smaller cities leads to more economic activities and skill diversification. Social mobility and improved purchasing power are possible due to fair wages, sustainable migration between financial centres, and citizens engaging in productive activities.
Scenario 03: Falling Behind
In the early 2020s, government policies ignored the challenges associated with unemployability and jobless growth. The nation’s economic and social development continues without policy directives. Lack of skill development and healthcare investment increases demand for traditional public and selective private sector jobs.
Rampant inequality, unemployment, and less productive jobs affected Indians’ social mobility and purchasing power. Policies of the 2020s focused heavily on agriculture and economically dominant sectors like IT services. Therefore, in 2049, Indians live in economically depressed sub-urban centres surrounding traditional heavy industries and economic activities.
A lack of state support has increased the risks associated with entrepreneurship and vocational education. Lack of industrial training has reduced permanent employment opportunities and promoted daily wage and contractual employment. People continue to run less productive family-run small businesses, and disguised unemployment has increased in labour-intensive industries. It is widely accepted that Indian education has fallen behind global standards. Skill mismatch due to a lack of skill diversity has stagnated the Indian economy. Urbanisation continues in large parts of the country.
Nevertheless, people continue to work close to their homes and hesitate to migrate due to poor economic opportunities. Vocational programs continue to face social stigma, and the ease of skilling remains out of reach for many people. People in unproductive categories continue to increase in suburban and rural areas.
Entrepreneurship remains a niche sector for the wealthy. Foreign investment continues to decline as Indian labour fails to meet international standards, and industries and training remain in the informal, unorganised sector.
Scenario 04: Lost Opportunity
Despite continuous warnings about unemployability, joblessness, and skilled labour migration in the early 2020s, the government could not change course. The state redirected its efforts to meet short-term industry demands and temporary labour shortages elsewhere.
In 2049, high net-worth individuals have already left for better opportunities. Vocational education and training remain out of reach. Many do not wish to pursue skill development programs due to deep-rooted prejudices. Persistent joblessness has kept the unemployment rate high in cities.
Nevertheless, people from economically depressed regions continue to migrate for access to scant public services. A lack of multi-disciplinary learning initiatives never integrated vocational subjects with the general education system. No recognition of prior learning leads to labour-acquiring skills in an informal sector.
Indian education standards continue to fall behind their global counterparts, and unemployability increases due to a lack of skills. The aim of complete skilling now remains forever elusive. The state continues to cater to the rising demand for government jobs, social assistance, and selective private-sector jobs.
Due to underinvestment in rural areas, the employment rate remains low, disguised unemployment remains high in labour-intensive sectors, and people continue to work in less productive contractual jobs. Entrepreneurship never trends among the youth due to escalating associated risks.
Conclusion
4 Scenarios that develop along the lines of:
- Skill development and entrepreneurship standards
- Changing migration patterns.
The scenarios were developed using the 2X2 Scenario building Matrix. Learn more about the framework. Click Here.
The following 25 years will be critical in transforming India’s future. Rising unemployment, persistent unemployability, and poor educational infrastructure in India indicate that our priorities are not in the right place.
What we have done so far is not enough. These scenarios help us understand the consequences of our actions and inactions. Some scenarios are more optimistic, whereas others are more extreme. However, we need to engage with alternative futures to strategise today and develop more resilient policies for the future.
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